Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].
冠通每日交易策略-20250917
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-17 10:51