贵金属日报-20250917

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals mainly fluctuated. The US August retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.50% [1] - Trump called for faster interest rate cuts. The market priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut this time was only 3% [1] - Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude at the meeting early tomorrow and Powell's speech on future guidance. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect leading to a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Other Key Points Tariff - related - The EU and Indonesia reached a trade agreement [1] - The US Commerce Department considered imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [1] - The US and India's trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday and agreed to step up efforts to reach a trade deal [1] Trump - related - Trump talked with Modi to ease differences on tariffs and Russian oil [2] - Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen talked with Trump, and she agreed to phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions against Russia [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arranged a visit to the US next week [2] - Trump arrived in the UK [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [2] - The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 20.1%, 50 basis points is 76.8%, and 75 basis points is 3.1% [2]