碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂基本面短期平静，盘面抛压仍未能完全消化-20250917

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the pattern of being volatile and slightly strong. In the absence of additional marginal factors, the main LC2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in the current range in the next 1 - 2 weeks. If downstream purchases are weak, it may retest the previous low [3] - The recent rebound of futures prices may be affected by the weakening of the basis and the stabilization of spot prices, but the changes in trading volume and open interest show market divergence. The supply side may support prices, and the demand side may bring short - term support, but the cautious procurement and sufficient inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upside space. The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend [32][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data: On September 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose slightly to 73,180 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The basis widened to - 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was stronger relative to the spot. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,009 lots to 300,437 lots, a decrease of 2.91%, while the trading volume expanded by 3.62% to 500,267 lots [1][5][30] - Supply - demand and Inventory: On the supply side, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, becoming the main support for supply, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%. The long - term supply increase expectation was enhanced, but short - term factors supported the spot. On the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles was differentiated. The prices of cathode materials and most cell prices increased. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 138,512 tons, but the warehouse receipts remained high [2][31] - Market Summary: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern. The supply side suppresses the upside space, while the demand side has a contradictory cost - pressure transmission, and market wait - and - see sentiment remains [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.69% to 73,180 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 86.21% to - 1,080 yuan/ton, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.91% to 300,437 lots, and the trading volume increased by 3.62% to 500,267 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market: On September 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose. The futures price fluctuated, and the downstream was cautious. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6] - Downstream Consumption: From September 1 - 7, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7] - Industry News: The lithium ore shutdown in Yichun, Jiangxi, may affect the supply, and the industry reshuffle from the supply side of lithium carbonate is coming [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are data charts on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., which visually show the data changes in the industrial chain [10][13][19]