油脂产业周报：终端弱需求下，油脂依靠供应端叙事支撑盘面-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - Rapeseed oil: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - Spread strategy: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - Negative information: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - Spot trading information: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - Spread structure: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - Basis structure: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - Inter - variety spread structure: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - Foreign market: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - Soybean oil: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].