2025年1-8月财政数据解读：广义财政收入平稳，支出增速小幅放缓

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0% (previous value 0%) while the combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9% (previous value 9.3%) indicating stable revenue and a slight slowdown in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue improvement was primarily driven by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4% (previous value 20.7%), with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% (previous value 62.5%)[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 165% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong market activity[15] Government Fund and Land Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% (previous value -0.7%), with land transfer revenue in August amounting to 231.3 billion yuan (previous value 267.9 billion yuan) and a cumulative growth rate of -4.7% (previous value -4.6%) indicating seasonal low performance[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand[17] Debt Issuance and Expenditure Dynamics - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, representing a progress rate of 66.4%, which is lower than the previous year's rate by 1.9 percentage points[20] - Expenditure growth for the first account was 3.1% (previous value 3.4%), while the second account's expenditure growth rate was 30% (previous value 31.7%) indicating a slight decline in expenditure growth due to the slowdown in special bond issuance[21] Economic Risks - Risks include the potential for domestic economic recovery to fall short of expectations, policy implementation delays, and significant weaknesses in the real estate market[23]