国投期货农产品日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy (★★★): None - Hold (★★☆): None - Weak Buy (★☆☆): None - Neutral (White Star): None - Weak Sell (★☆☆): None - Sell (★★☆): None - Strong Sell (★★★): None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].