Group 1: Report Core View - The outer - disk US soybeans are expected to maintain a narrow - range bottom - level oscillation after the harvest season due to the lack of Chinese purchase orders. The upward space of the inner - disk soybean series is restricted by high near - month inventory, and the sentiment of Sino - US negotiations has suppressed the market. Whether the oscillation range can be broken depends on the repair of the supply - demand gap in the far - month. The inner - disk rapeseed series is rumored to have the issue of rapeseed meal re - import, and it is mainly necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian negotiations, showing a short - term weak oscillation [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. However, the soybean supply situation needs to be continuously monitored after the trading logic of the soybean meal shifts to the far - month. The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The downstream purchase sentiment is expected to be limited, but consumption will maintain at a rigid - demand level [5]. Group 2: Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.7% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Group 3: Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3002, down 39 (-1.28%); soybean meal 05 is 2781, down 21 (-0.75%); soybean meal 09 is 2897, down 15 (-0.52%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2460, down 58 (-2.3%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2361, down 36 (-1.5%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2441, down 30 (-1.21%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1049, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.107, down 0.0103 (-0.14%) [5]. Spreads - The spread of M01 - 05 is 221, down 18; RM01 - 05 is 99, down 22; M05 - 09 is - 116, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 80, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 105, up 24; RM09 - 01 is - 19, up 28. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2980, down 20; the basis of soybean meal in Rizhao is - 22, up 19. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2503, down 8; the basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is - 15, down 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 477, down 20; the futures spread is 542, up 19 [7]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4516.8214 yuan/ton, down 69.501 yuan/day and up 0.0712 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 4056.24 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 22.72 yuan/week. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is - 612.5414 yuan/ton, down 69.501 yuan/day and down 99.3147 yuan/week; the profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 59.4516 yuan/ton, up 32.0011 yuan/day and down 0.4214 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the disk is 754 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/day and down 104 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 937 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/day and down 63 yuan/week [8]. Group 4: Supply and Demand - The arrival of soybeans is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected to appear after the first quarter of next year [5]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and the oil mill crushing volume remains high. The soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The physical inventory of downstream feed mills is at a neutral level, and the inventory of channels and downstream has been well - stocked, with limited subsequent purchase sentiment, but consumption will maintain at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventory [5].
油料产业风险管理日报-20250917
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-17 12:16