Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Agency behavior has become the core concern recently. The regulations on redemption fees in the new public - offering fund sales rules have raised concerns about bond fund redemptions, leading to declines in policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and ultra - long - term government bonds. If the new rules are implemented, funds may flow back from bond funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products and bond ETFs are relatively more advantageous. Under the re - balancing of funds, the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds preferred by bond funds may widen, while general credit bonds and ETF component bonds are relatively more advantageous, especially those with medium - short durations [1]. - In the short term, institutions are cautious, approaching the quarter - end, and the stock market remains strong. The odds of bonds have improved, but the probability of success is still not high. It is recommended to explore medium - short - duration coupon opportunities and use moderate leverage while defending. Institutions with stable liability ends should gradually increase their allocations during adjustments, with general credit bonds and ABS being better than Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The bond market continues to be under pressure due to the shock - strengthening of the stock market and the disturbance of the new bond fund redemption fee rules, with the curve continuing to steepen. The recent strengthening of the stock market restricts bond - buying, and the new rules on bond fund redemption fees have led to large - scale bond market adjustments from September 8 - 12, with significant declines in policy - financial bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [12]. - The odds of bonds have increased, but sentiment is weak, and the probability of success is still not high. The real inflection point requires the coordination of fundamentals, the stock market, and the implementation of the new rules [15]. 2. Impact of Agency Behavior Bond Funds - Bond funds are greatly affected by the new rules. If redemption fees increase, their flexibility and cost - effectiveness will weaken significantly, leading to a decline in demand. Funds may flow back to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products will have relatively more advantages, and the outsourcing of bond funds may decrease. ETFs are exempt from redemption fees (excluding over - the - counter index funds and ETF link funds), with expanded product advantages, and the "Matthew effect" in the industry may intensify. Certificate of deposit funds and money market funds that are also exempt will also benefit relatively. There is also uncertainty about the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - offering funds [16]. - This shift in behavior significantly affects the demand structure of the bond market. Banks and insurance companies' self - operations prefer government bonds and local government bonds, increasing their allocation demand, while the demand for policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and even 30 - year government bonds preferred by funds will shrink, and the spreads of relevant varieties will widen significantly. The proportion of trading positions in the bond market will decrease, affecting market trading activity and pricing efficiency [16]. Bond ETFs - The new rules are relatively beneficial to bond ETFs, which have developed rapidly this year and still have room for expansion in the future, bringing about the allocation demand for relevant underlying bonds. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs was approved on September 8, and after their establishment, they are expected to bring more allocation demand. However, in the short term, the yield of relevant underlying bonds of science and technology innovation bonds has limited room for further decline, and medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for allocation during adjustments [16]. Wealth Management Products - Wealth management products are relatively more advantageous. Without the constraint of redemption fees, with a wider investment scope and better net - value drawdown control, they are more in line with individual investment preferences. If the redemption fees of bond funds increase, wealth management products may further seize market share. The outsourcing of wealth management products may also decrease. Compared with bond funds, wealth management products prefer general credit bonds with shorter durations [20]. Insurance Companies - Insurance companies may return more to their own investments. If redemption fees increase and with the implementation of I9, insurance companies may be more inclined to invest on their own. Compared with funds, insurance companies prefer to allocate ultra - long - term local government bonds and increase their allocation of medium - and high - grade credit bonds during market adjustments [20]. 3. Investment Strategies Coupon Strategy - Institutions with unstable liability ends are recommended to focus on medium - short - duration sinking allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually increase their allocation of credit bonds during adjustments, initially focusing on bonds with a duration of less than 5 years, and then increasing the allocation of long - duration bonds as the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior become clearer. Key attention should be paid to high - quality urban investment bonds in regions with controllable credit risks and central and state - owned enterprises in stable industries such as power, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [23]. Variety Selection - Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are greatly affected by the new bond market redemption fee rules. If the policy is implemented, their variety premiums may be re - evaluated. It is recommended to shorten the duration recently. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments. The return of bond - allocation funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies is beneficial to the investment in high - grade ABS, which still has a certain variety spread and can continue to be allocated in medium - and high - grade bonds. Private perpetual bonds need to guard against liquidity and valuation disturbances caused by increased redemption pressure, especially those with medium - long durations [26]. Leverage - The interest - rate spread has widened with market adjustments. The liquidity situation may continue to be neutral and loose, and with the expectation of the central bank's purchase of government bonds rising, moderate leverage can be used to increase returns. However, attention should be paid to liquidity disturbances near the quarter - end [26]. Duration - Continue to focus on medium - short - duration defense. Wait for the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior to become clear before looking for opportunities for the bond market to rebound and extend the duration. Currently, the market sentiment is still cautious, and there may still be adjustment risks in the medium - and long - ends due to factors such as bond fund redemptions and wealth management product redemptions at the quarter - end [26]. 4. Specific Bond Types Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - If the new bond fund redemption fee rules are implemented, it may lead to a re - pricing of the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. As of mid - 2025, bond funds held a total of 2.53 trillion yuan of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, accounting for 35% of the outstanding scale. If banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products redeem half of their bond funds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds will bear the brunt due to their good liquidity. Theoretically, it may drive the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds up by 9 - 10BP [2][47]. - After over - adjustments, positive factors include the allocation demand from insurance companies, wealth management products, and annuities. However, compared with bond funds, insurance companies prefer medium - long - duration, medium - high - grade Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, with a higher preference for Tier 2 capital bonds than bank perpetual bonds. Wealth management products may have more demand for general credit bonds. Annuities may prefer new bonds after the new VAT rules [52]. - Recently, caution is recommended for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The duration should be appropriately shortened. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments [52]. Urban Investment Bonds - In August 2025, urban investment bonds continued the net - repayment trend, but the net - repayment amount decreased compared with the same period last year and the previous month. The registration and review situation showed that the amount of urban investment bonds registered by the association increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the amount of urban investment bonds whose review was terminated by the exchange decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [81]. - Since this year, debt - resolution resources have become more abundant. As of September 5, 2025, the planned issuance scale of "special bonds for replacing hidden debts" was 1.95 trillion yuan, and 109.85 billion yuan of "special new - issue special bonds" had been issued. Eight provinces had allocated 171.5 billion yuan of special bonds to repay local arrears [86][87][89]. - The yield of urban investment bonds has been rising, with short - end varieties performing better than long - end ones. Since mid - August 2025, affected by the strong stock market and the new bond fund redemption fee rules, the yield of urban investment bonds has generally increased, with the spreads of AAA and AA + rated bonds with a duration of less than 2 years slightly decreasing by about 1BP, while the yields of long - end bonds mostly increasing by more than 10BP [99]. - In the short term, it is recommended to look for opportunities while defending, and the short - duration sinking strategy may be relatively better. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually participate in the allocation opportunities of medium - long - duration bonds of high - grade issuers. Sinking can focus on regions with controllable credit risks and high coupons, and control the duration within 3 years [103]. Industrial Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profits of industrial bond - issuing entities decreased year - on - year, but the operating cash flow improved year - on - year. There was significant profit differentiation among industries. Industries such as home appliances, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, machinery, and power had profit growth and high ROE. Industries such as steel and cement benefited from anti - involution policies, with product prices rising and profits slightly recovering from a low base. The real estate, light manufacturing, and construction industries remained sluggish, and the profits of the coal industry further declined [4]. - The fundamentals of industrial bonds are weakly recovering, and with increased market disturbances, it is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with medium - short durations and moderately sink to explore local state - owned enterprises and leading private enterprises in stable industries such as non - ferrous metals, transportation, power, and new energy. For real estate bonds, the incremental policies are yet to be observed, and the valuation risks may still rise. It is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with a duration of about 1 year and medium - high grades, and pay attention to the sales trends in September - October and the statements of real estate - stabilizing policies [4].
机构再平衡下中短端普信债占优
HTSC·2025-09-17 12:28