国投期货软商品日报-20250917

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Sugar: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Log: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Natural Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trends of various soft commodities are mostly in a state of shock or relatively balanced, and the operability of the market is generally poor. It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, while paying attention to various influencing factors such as supply and demand, price, and macro - events [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a slight decline today. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may trigger a scramble for purchase by ginneries, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is about 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and poor downstream order demand. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still in shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weakly operating. Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year in the short term, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, if the current sugar - alcohol ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is reduced year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather and cane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was in shock. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and merchants were actively purchasing. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and it is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, with a bearish operation idea [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined today. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded to 134,000 tons. Demand has significantly recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The inventory of China's main pulp ports decreased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease, but the inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August 2025 decreased by 227,000 tons month - on - month. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or use the idea of range shock for operation [7] Log - The futures price was in shock. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The import willingness of traders has decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the import and export volume has not increased significantly. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]