国投期货能源日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Crude oil prices maintain a medium-term bearish trend, with short-term geopolitical factors causing temporary supply fluctuations and limited rebound space. Consider a strategy combining high-level short positions and call options [2]. - The spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel oils is difficult to compress further. Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread on dips [3]. - There is still support at the bottom of the asphalt futures price [4]. - The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, with good support at the spot end. Monitor the peak-season stocking market [5]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.07% intraday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export ports affecting supply. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bp, providing short-term support to the commodity market [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The rebound in crude oil drives up fuel oil futures. Russian fuel oil shipments have declined, while domestic refinery demand and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel consumption have increased. China's low-sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased by 900,000 tons, but the utilization rate is low, and supply pressure is not prominent [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures are mainly oscillating. Recent data shows a slight reduction in refinery inventories and a 50,000-ton weekly decline in social inventories. The increase and subsequent decrease in warehouse receipts in East China help relieve the downward pressure on spot prices in the region. Prices in South China and Hebei are temporarily stable [4]. LPG - The overseas market remains strong, with strong import demand and geopolitical risks boosting sentiment. Typhoons in South China have reduced imports, while good chemical profit margins support high operating rates. The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and the spot end has good support [5].