国投期货化工日报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]