黑色金属日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a complex situation with different performances in various types, and the overall market is affected by factors such as demand, cost, and policies, showing a rebound trend with fluctuations [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short term, influenced by supply, demand, and macro - policy expectations [2]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the expectations of over - production inspection and "anti - involution", and there are opportunities for callback buying [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have their prices following the rebound of the black series, but the highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread's apparent demand continues to decline, the peak - season recovery is postponed, and inventory accumulates; hot - roll demand is resilient, production is at a relatively high level, and inventory pressure eases [1]. - Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption; pay attention to environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - Domestic demand is weak, steel exports remain high, and the cost support is strong, with the market continuing to rebound with fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - Global shipments are at a high level, domestic arrivals decline slightly, and port inventory oscillates with no significant pressure to accumulate in the short term [2]. - Terminal demand is relatively weak, but iron - water production is high, and there is a pre - holiday restocking demand from steel mills [2]. - The market expects macro - policies, and the "anti - involution" and overseas Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affect the market, with high - level oscillation expected [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coking is in progress, profits are average, and daily production has increased; inventory has accumulated, and traders' purchasing willingness is general [3]. - The market expects cost increases due to over - production inspection of coking coal and "anti - involution", and prices follow coking coal's rise [3]. - Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water is at a high level, and there are opportunities for callback buying [3]. Coking Coal - Prices are relatively strong due to high expectations of over - production inspection and "anti - involution" [5]. - Coking coal mine production has slightly increased, spot trading has weakened, and terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - Total inventory has increased, production - end inventory has slightly accumulated, and there are opportunities for callback buying [5]. Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production has quickly recovered, weekly production has increased, and inventory has not accumulated, with good spot and futures demand [6]. - Manganese ore's forward quotes have increased slightly, and spot ore has been boosted; inventory is accumulating slowly [6]. - Prices follow the black - series rebound, but highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [6]. Silicon Iron - Iron - water production has recovered, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has slightly declined, with overall demand being okay [7]. - Supply has returned to a high level, spot and futures demand is good, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Prices follow the black - series rebound, but highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [7]