黑色金属早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a differentiated performance, with rebar likely to continue reducing production and hot-rolled coils likely to resume production. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to peak-season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply side is supported by policies, but the upside potential is restricted by steel demand and profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [9][11]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter and market expectation fluctuations, despite the potential recovery of domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [12][14]. - For ferroalloys, silicon iron may rebound in the short term but is under high - supply pressure, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term due to cost support and supply - demand pressure [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Relevant Information - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi magazine emphasizes the governance of low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [2]. - In early September, key steel enterprises produced 20.87 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.087 million tons, a 7.2% increase from the previous period. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions have changed, with rebar in Shanghai up 20 yuan to 3240 yuan, and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai up 10 yuan to 3410 yuan [2]. Logical Analysis - Affected by positive news, the black - metal sector rose sharply in the night session. Last week, the pig - iron output recovered rapidly, rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar is expected to continue reducing production due to heavy losses, while hot - rolled coils are expected to resume production as they are still profitable. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster than last year, and its apparent demand is declining; hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline, and its demand has improved significantly. Steel prices may face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not happen, but the decline may be limited due to pre - National Day restocking [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Relevant Information - In Inner Mongolia, 15 coal mines had monthly raw coal output exceeding the announced capacity by more than 10% from January to June 2025, including 3 coking coal mines with a total capacity of about 2.7 million tons. One of them has been shut down for rectification. In Tangshan, some steel and coking enterprises have received notices of environmental protection production restrictions [7]. - The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions are provided, such as the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port is 1591 yuan/ton [8]. Logical Analysis - Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be restricted, and it is difficult to return to the high level of the first half of the year. Although imported coal can provide some supplements, the upside potential of coking coal prices is restricted by steel demand and profit [9][11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Considering the recent significant increase, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [11]. - Arbitrage: The long - January and short - May spread of coking coal can be held [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [11]. Iron Ore Relevant Information - In the US, industrial production and retail sales in August increased more than expected. The transaction area of new and second - hand housing in 10 key cities changed last week, with new housing up 4.4% month - on - month and down 5.3% year - on - year, and second - hand housing up 18.7% month - on - month and up 10.2% year - on - year. The inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 506,000 tons to 12.991 million tons from September 8th to 14th. The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port increased, such as PB powder (60.8%) up 9 to 785 yuan [12]. Logical Analysis - In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand maintained high growth. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to market expectation fluctuations [12][14]. Trading Strategies No trading strategies for iron ore are provided in the given text. Ferroalloys Relevant Information - On the 16th, the spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased, and the transaction prices of different varieties also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron increased by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of manganese silicon increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [16][17]. Logical Analysis - For silicon iron, the supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Market sentiment was boosted by anti - involution trading and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, but the high - supply pressure remains. For manganese silicon, the alloy factory output increased slightly, the demand side was under pressure, but the cost side was supported by low port inventory [16][17]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For silicon iron, it may be strong in the short term but under high - supply pressure, with limited upside potential; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to conduct high - level spot hedging [16][17][18]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [18][20]. - Options: For silicon iron, sell straddle option combinations at high prices; for manganese silicon, wait and see [18][20].