大事前夜，波动提升

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high for the year [2][7] - The overall market turnover has increased to 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating heightened trading activity [7] - The market is characterized by a structural trend, with funds concentrating on high-growth sectors [7] Stock Market Analysis - The stock market is maintaining a trend of oscillating upward, with significant gains in technology sectors [3][5] - Various indices, such as the Stock Trading Software Index and the Semiconductor Equipment Index, have shown substantial increases, with year-to-date gains of 62.63% and 49.44% respectively [4] - The market is witnessing a rotation within technology stocks, driven by strong performance in sectors like semiconductors and new energy [7][8] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with government bond futures rising across the board [9] - The 30-year main contract increased by 0.31%, reflecting a strong performance compared to shorter-term contracts [11] - The central bank's liquidity support is expected to enhance demand for government bonds, particularly in infrastructure and municipal sectors [11] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market is experiencing mixed performance, with energy products showing strength while precious metals face downward pressure [9] - The focus on anti-involution policies is expected to increase volatility in certain commodities, particularly coal [11] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine, are influencing oil prices and creating uncertainty in the market [11] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include artificial intelligence, domestic chip production, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [12] - The report suggests a focus on sectors with strong industrial trends and those benefiting from a weaker dollar [12][13] - The potential for a "dual bull" market in both stocks and bonds is anticipated as liquidity conditions improve [13]