复盘系列（二）：美联储降息影响几何？

• The report analyzes the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on asset performance, focusing on "policy intensity, crisis severity, and market expectations" as core variables[2][5][21] - It categorizes interest rate cuts into "preventive cuts" and "responsive cuts," with preventive cuts being gradual and aimed at economic adjustment, while responsive cuts are crisis-driven and characterized by high intensity and rapid pace[4][14][21] - Historical data shows that during preventive rate cuts, risk assets perform well, while gold exhibits mixed results depending on inflation and geopolitical factors. In responsive rate cuts, gold becomes a key safe-haven asset during severe crises, while equity markets experience significant declines due to earnings collapses[5][21][30] - The report highlights specific periods of interest rate cuts, such as 1984-1986, 1995-1998, 2001-2003, and 2007-2008, analyzing their economic background, policy triggers, and asset performance[16][18][19][30] - During preventive rate cuts, slow-paced cuts align with economic recovery, benefiting growth stocks and stabilizing corporate earnings. Faster-paced preventive cuts may trigger market concerns, leading to mixed asset performance[29][30] - Responsive rate cuts during light crises are driven by liquidity restoration, leading to asset price recovery. In severe crises, earnings collapse dominates, resulting in equity market declines and gold price increases due to safe-haven demand[30][32] - Emergency responsive rate cuts, such as those in March 2020, caused widespread asset sell-offs due to liquidity squeezes, breaking the typical pattern of gold price increases during responsive cuts[31][32] - The report provides detailed statistics on asset performance during preventive 25BP rate cuts, showing average returns and win rates for major indices like S&P 500, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite, and gold across different timeframes[36][37][38] - Preventive 25BP rate cuts typically result in moderate equity market gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing strong performance, while gold exhibits steady inflation-hedging characteristics[36][38][39]