Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market shows an upward trend due to anti - deflation and anti - involution expectations. The key to disproving the bullish logic lies in the delivery, with the next delivery pressure possibly in the 11 - contract. The time window from late September to the end of October is difficult to disprove the bullish view [4][140]. - From 2022 - 2024, real estate and glass spot markets showed quarterly improvements in the fourth quarter. However, the glass spot price has rarely increased by over 20% during these periods. Exceeding expectations in anti - involution measures is needed to address the current weak basis [4][140]. - From 2025 - 2026, the glass industry will trend towards energy cleaning and electrification, as indicated by policies from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and local environmental protection departments [13][140]. - The soda ash industry has a more severe supply surplus than the glass industry. Its future trend is expected to be similar to that of glass, but it may be weaker during the upward phase and stronger during the downward phase [5][140]. - Currently, bonds and stocks are trading based on the anti - deflation logic. The weak reality of glass and soda ash has to yield to the capital logic. The market will return to the weak - reality delivery logic during the policy - free period in the late fourth quarter [7][140]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Market Outlook - The glass market is expected to be volatile and bullish until facing delivery pressure again. The rise is driven by expectations, while the fall is due to delivery [4]. Bullish and Bearish Logics - Bearish: Terminal demand has not improved, real estate transactions are weak, futures are at a significant premium (01 contract is about 200 higher than the spot), and the anti - involution policy for glass is not clear, so significant production cuts may not occur [4]. - Bullish: The delivery pressure of the 09 contract has ended, the anti - involution policy may exceed expectations and cannot be disproven in the short term, and real estate and glass spot markets usually improve quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter [4]. Points to Note - Before the National Day, there may be a squeeze on virtual positions. The next delivery pressure is expected in the 11 - contract, and the time window from late September to early November is more favorable for bulls [7]. - Inventory in Shahe has decreased by 50% year - on - year, in Hubei by 16.5%, and nationally by 15%. After the end of August, national inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month. In the past three years, the glass industry has mainly reduced inventory in the fourth quarter, limiting the downside of spot prices [7]. - The limit of the forward premium due to warehouse receipt pressure in the past three years is about 200 yuan/ton, and the current spread between the 01 and 11 contracts is 110 yuan/ton [7]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may be a market speculation point, but its real impact is limited [7]. Supply - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day, newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,210 tons/day, potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,790 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,930 tons, and potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [51][52][53]. - Current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons/day, with a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021. The net capacity in 2024 decreased by 17,000 tons compared to the beginning - of - year high, but there has been no significant contraction in 2025 [57][58][61]. - The most likely devices to stop production are those ignited before 2017, accounting for 22.5% of the total capacity. Most domestic devices were cold - repaired between 2017 - 2021, accounting for nearly 44% [61]. Price and Profit - Shahe prices are around 1,120 - 1,160 yuan/ton, Hubei prices are around 1,040 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and prices in East China are around 1,220 - 1,320 yuan/ton. Recent spot prices have changed little, with a weakening basis and month - spread [71][72]. - Profits are about 30 yuan/ton for petroleum - coke - fueled devices, - 174 yuan/ton for natural - gas - fueled devices, and 100 yuan/ton for coal - fueled devices [75][79]. Inventory and Spread - Recent transactions have improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Most regions have seen a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Downstream restocking is mainly due to low prices, and terminal demand has not expanded significantly [82][84]. - Comparing the market in the past three years, there has been a high probability of quarter - on - quarter improvement, but the spot price rarely increases by over 20%. The glass industry needs to improve both supply and demand to change the long - term negative feedback [87][88]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are stable, and low - price regions have slightly better transactions than high - price regions [90]. Photovoltaic Glass - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has good overall transactions, with prices fluctuating upward. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is about 20 yuan/square meter [98][100]. - Production capacity has changed little recently, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 15.34%. The sample inventory days are about 16.13 days, a 12.13% decrease month - on - month [102][104][109]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate is 87.3% (86.2% last week), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 422,000 tons/week [113][115]. - Inventory is about 1.8 million tons, with 76,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.04 million tons of heavy soda ash [120][121]. Price and Profit - Futures have rebounded, and spot traders' quotes have increased slightly, while manufacturers' quotes have changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan/ton [129][130]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 54.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 36.3 yuan/ton [136]. Market Scenario - The soda ash market is moving towards a weaker situation. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [137].
能源化工反内卷预期与弱基差现实的对决
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-17 14:11