国贸期货蛋白数据日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, with increased demand for crushing and decreased exports, resulting in a slightly higher than expected 25/26 US soybean ending inventory, bringing some bearish influence. However, the new US soybean balance sheet remains tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 63% this week, and may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the production area recently [8]. - In September, the expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a stockpiling cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [9]. - On the demand side, short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and high提货 volume. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and is expected to be in a short - term stockpiling cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has slightly declined. - Overall, the profit of domestic soybean purchase and shipping has deteriorated. Due to the comprehensive import cost support expectation of US soybean premium and basis, the downside space of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - On September 16, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) showed different values in different regions. For example, in Dalian it was 39, in Tianjin - 1, in Rizhao - 41, etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) also varied by region, such as - 11 in Zhangjiagang, - 61 in Dongguan, etc. There were also data on the basis of rapeseed meal, spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and other related spread data [6]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0735, and the import soybean futures gross profit and other international data were presented, along with inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major oil - mill soybeans, major oil - mill soybean meal, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory. There were also data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and the major oil - mill operating rate [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report had an unexpected impact on the US soybean balance sheet. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be high, and the soybean meal stockpiling situation is expected to change in different months. The supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [8][9]. - Demand side: The short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume [9]. - Inventory side: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory has slightly declined [9]. - Strategy: Due to cost support, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with attention on Sino - US policy changes [9].