超长信用债探微跟踪：2.4%的超长信用债有机会吗？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of ultra - long credit bonds from multiple aspects, including the adjustment of yields in the stock market, the increase in new bond supply in the primary market, and the decline in index prices and weak trading sentiment in the secondary market. It also points out that institutions should pay attention to market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs when participating in the ultra - long credit bond market [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields continued to adjust. Due to the impact of new public fund regulations on the bond market this week, assets with insufficient safety margins, such as medium - and long - duration secondary bonds and general credit bonds over 7 years, faced significant adjustment pressure. The number of stock ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 353 compared with last week [2][12]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds increased significantly. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 40.19 billion, reaching the highest point this year, mainly affected by the large - scale issuance of ultra - long individual bonds by Everbright Group. Due to the overall pressure on the bond market, the market's sentiment towards primary - market allocation was cautious, and the coupon rates of new ultra - long credit bonds generally continued to rise. However, investors had a certain degree of recognition for the high - quality ultra - long new bonds of Everbright Group, as shown by the rebound in the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds in the latest week [3][21]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The price of the ultra - long credit bond index continued to fall. This week, the price index trends of various bonds continued to diverge. Medium - and short - duration credit bonds were more resilient, while long - duration varieties faced price pressure. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years decreased by 1.02% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds remained sluggish. This week, due to redemption pressure, the selling pressure of trading desks on ultra - long credit bonds intensified. Although the number of transactions of credit bonds over 7 years increased slightly, the average transaction yield increased significantly compared with last week. In terms of spreads, the spread between industrial bonds over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 35bp [32]. - Correspondingly, the proportion of TKN of ultra - long credit bonds over 10 years was less than 50% this week, and the average discount of 20 - 30 - year urban investment individual bonds reached over 5BP, highlighting the heavy selling pressure from sellers [37]. - In terms of investor structure, due to concerns about the stability of the liability side, funds have been reducing their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds for five consecutive weeks. The net selling scale of ultra - long credit bond varieties in the latest week exceeded 3 billion, intensifying the market selling pressure. Institutions such as insurance and wealth management participated slightly during the adjustment, reflecting the allocation demand for high - coupon long - term bonds [43]. - From a more microscopic perspective, the spreads between active ultra - long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities continued to widen this week. The spreads of varieties around 10 years have risen to over the 60th percentile since 2024. In the future, there are still liquidity flaws in ultra - long credit bonds. If institutions intend to participate, they need to avoid excessive selling and pay attention to the market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs [46].