资产配置日报：买在预期落地前-20250917

Market Performance - The domestic market showed a bullish trend with both stocks and bonds rising, indicating a "slow rise in the broad market with thematic rotation" [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up by 0.37%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.61% to 4551.02 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.40 trillion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] Sector Analysis - The AI computing sector is experiencing capital outflow as funds shift towards solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, with the robotics sector leading the gains [4][6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would enhance valuation and reduce financing costs [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is also poised to gain from a weaker dollar and increased global demand, particularly benefiting industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc [3] Investment Trends - The report highlights a potential shift in investment focus towards high-growth sectors such as robotics, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as funds rotate from AI computing and semiconductors [6] - The securities sector is seeing inflows, with a net inflow of 8 billion yuan into securities ETFs, indicating strong investor interest [6] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields falling to 1.76% and 2.06% respectively, driven by expectations of central bank bond purchases [7][8] - Recent trading activity indicates that major banks are increasing their net purchases of specific government bonds, suggesting a potential focus for future central bank interventions [8] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is currently in a phase of structural volatility, with the release of new energy consumption standards for polysilicon expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the medium to long term [10][11] - The report notes that while the overall risk in the commodity market is limited due to favorable macro conditions, the upward potential will depend on marginal changes in the fundamentals [11]