FMSH(SH:688385) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-09-17 23:30Market Overview - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, the STAR 50 gained 0.91%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.95%, the ChiNext Index climbed 1.95%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.78% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on September 17 were power equipment (+2.55%), automotive (+2.05%), home appliances (+1.64%), coal (+1.62%), and comprehensive sector (+1.38%). The worst-performing sectors included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.02%), retail (-0.98%), social services (-0.86%), food and beverage (-0.5%), and textiles and apparel (-0.41%) [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on September 17 was 24,029.24 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.44 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Fudan Microelectronics (688385) as a leading domestic integrated circuit company, with expectations for FPGA and MCU products to drive performance beyond expectations. The recommendation is based on the significant market potential in emerging applications such as AI, 5G, data centers, and national defense [6] - The target price for Fudan Microelectronics is set at 83.79 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 39.65% from the current price [6] - Revenue projections for Fudan Microelectronics from 2025 to 2027 are 4,046.51 million yuan, 4,840.94 million yuan, and 5,825.18 million yuan, with growth rates of 12.71%, 19.63%, and 20.33% respectively. Net profit estimates are 657.26 million yuan, 983.28 million yuan, and 1,296.78 million yuan, with growth rates of 14.79%, 49.60%, and 31.88% respectively [6] Important Commentary - The coal industry is facing supply constraints due to capacity replacement policies, which may lead to a tighter supply-demand balance. If capacity indicators for coal mines are not met, there is a risk of capacity revocation [7] - Investment opportunities in the coal sector are expected to gradually balance supply and demand, with coal prices projected to rise steadily. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8] - Catalysts for the coal industry include potential revocation of capacity increases, while risks include a slowdown in overseas economic growth, significant capacity releases, and safety incidents in coal mines [8]