国海证券晨会纪要-20250918

Group 1: Economic Overview - The report indicates that China's exports are expected to remain strong in Q4 2025, driven by resilient economic conditions and "anti-involution" policies that improve industrial profits, while real estate and consumption sectors show weakness [3][4] - The U.S. economy is exhibiting resilience, with expansionary fiscal policies likely to gently restart the credit cycle, benefiting the technology and industrial sectors, while consumption is constrained by inflation and income disparity [3] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy - The report anticipates a synchronized easing of liquidity both domestically and internationally in Q4, with short-term funding remaining ample and a notable increase in equity financing [3][4] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" policy deployment is highlighted, with a focus on high-quality development and increased support for sectors like "AI+" and service consumption [4] Group 3: Market and Style - A-shares are expected to advance further in Q4, driven by policy and liquidity, with a more balanced market style compared to Q3, providing opportunities for both growth and value stocks [4] - The report notes that the stock risk premium indicates good value in equities, with room for valuation expansion supported by incremental policies and macro liquidity [4] Group 4: Industry Configuration - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth and the "anti-involution" narrative, with a positive outlook for the computing power sector, particularly in Q4, as the bull market atmosphere is expected to continue [4] - Key sectors to watch include computers, power equipment, and basic chemicals, with the "anti-involution" trend providing favorable odds for cyclical products [4] Group 5: AI Computing Power Industry - The report discusses significant advancements in NVIDIA's GPU technology, with the GB300 chip achieving a floating-point computing power of 15 PFLOPS, 1.5 times that of the previous B200 model, and the Vera Rubin NVL144 showing a performance increase of 3.3 times [6][7] - The GB300 NVL72 system is noted for its potential to enhance AI factory output performance by up to 50 times compared to previous architectures [8] - The report highlights the transition to CPO technology for ultra-high-speed interconnects, improving energy efficiency and deployment speed significantly [9] Group 6: HBM and Cooling Technologies - HBM4 is expected to enter mass production in 2026, with SK Hynix leading the market, and major companies like Samsung and Micron also preparing to deliver HBM4 samples [10] - The GB300 NVL72 utilizes a full liquid cooling solution, which is noted for its higher heat dissipation efficiency and lower operational costs [11] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand for AI computing power will grow, driven by large model training, and that various segments of the computing power supply chain, including AI chips, server systems, and cooling technologies, are expected to benefit [11] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [11]