9月FOMC会议点评：美联储在分歧中寻找合适的降息路径

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.0%-4.25%[3] - The Fed's decision reflects rising risks in the labor market, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low[3] - The Fed's economic and inflation forecasts were adjusted, indicating a potential total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, with increased divergence in expectations[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 1.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates[17] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively[17] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE also at 3.1%[17] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, market risk appetite slightly increased, with the Dow Jones index rising by 0.57% and the Nasdaq index falling by 0.33%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated but is currently slightly below 4.1%[6] - Gold prices have seen a decline, dropping below $3700 per ounce[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the appropriate path for future rate cuts, influenced by external pressures and economic data[5] - Risks include potential inflation surprises due to international tensions and the possibility of a more severe economic downturn in the U.S.[41]