豆类油脂早报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal and palm oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, the market is affected by the prospects of Sino - US trade relations and a weak domestic fundamental situation with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis pattern [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term market is driven by sentiment. Although there are factors like rainfall in East Malaysia and stable export data, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. The long - term demand may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Day - to - day View: Oscillating weakly [5] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [5] - Reference View: Oscillating weakly [5] - Core Logic: The market is sensitive to changes in Sino - US trade relations. Domestically, the trading logic has shifted to a weak fundamental situation with oil mills having inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, leading to a weak short - term futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Day - to - day View: Oscillating weakly [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [7] - Reference View: Oscillating weakly [7] - Core Logic: After the supplementary increase in Malaysian palm oil prices, the increase has narrowed. Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may support long - term demand. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, resulting in high - level oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7].