研究所晨会观点精萃-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Short - term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2][3][4] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - Black Metals: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term, expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - Precious Metals: Short - term, expected to be strong and volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot median implies 3 rate cuts this year. The short - term uncertainty of external risks has decreased, and the domestic easing expectation has increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term increase in upward macro - driving forces [2][3][4] - Different sectors have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the steel market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and production restrictions; the non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and economic trends; the energy and chemical market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory conditions; the agricultural product market is affected by factors such as production capacity regulation and demand changes [5][8][15][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dollar first fell and then rose. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth rates were lower than previous values and market expectations. The uncertainty of external risks decreased, and the domestic easing expectation increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased [2] - Equity index: Driven by sectors such as lithography machines, diversified finance, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be volatile. The real - world demand has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand contradiction has increased. However, due to the potential production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term steel market is likely to continue the volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decreased slightly. The rigid replenishment demand continued to be released, but the room for further growth in iron - water production is limited. The supply is generally at a high level, and the price should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [5] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply continued to rise slightly, and the prices are expected to continue the interval - oscillation [6][7] - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash was volatile at a high level. There is a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish mindset should be adopted, and short - term positive impacts from policies and news should be guarded against [7] - Glass: The main contract of glass was volatile at a high level. The supply was stable, and the demand was difficult to increase significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: The recent rise in copper prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, tax policy on the recycled copper market, and the Indonesian copper mine accident. However, the upward space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [8] - Aluminum: The aluminum price fell. Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was cautious, and the profit - taking sentiment was strong. The rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the rise in copper prices, but the fundamentals are weak [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering the cost support, the short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward space is limited [10] - Tin: The supply - side开工率 decreased significantly, but it is expected to recover. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation in the short - term, but the upward space is under pressure [11] - Lithium Carbonate: The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upper pressure range should be noted [12][13] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation due to the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the strengthening of the cost - side coking coal [13] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short - term due to the price increase of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells in the spot market and the strong policy expectation [14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The crude oil price fell on Wednesday. The market digested the Fed's interest rate cut decision and US inventory data. The oil price will pay more attention to subsequent inventory conditions, and there is still support below in the short - term [15] - Asphalt: The asphalt price followed the oil price and remained volatile. The demand has weakened significantly, and the upward space is limited. The follow - up increase amplitude relative to the oil price should be noted [16] - PX: The PX price followed the energy and chemical sector and rebounded slightly. It will remain in an oscillating pattern and wait for the changes in PTA devices [16] - PTA: The PTA price continued to rise slightly. The downstream start - up rate has recovered, but the terminal start - up rate is still limited. The price upward space is limited, but there is also support below. It is expected to be oscillating without a trend in the short - term [17] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol ended its continuous decline and rebounded slightly. The port inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [17] - Short Fibers: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium - term [17] - Methanol: The supply of inland devices is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is rising, but there is also support for the price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [18] - PP: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [18] - LLDPE: The supply has increased, and the demand has improved slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18] - Urea: The supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [19] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The US soybean crop is in the early harvesting stage, and the crop rating has declined for three consecutive weeks. The CBOT soybean market maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude [20][21] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. However, the supply - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and the price center of soybean meal is expected to rise [21] - Oils: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the consumption support is limited. The high inventory of rapeseed oil is being continuously digested, and the market sentiment is strong [21] - Palm Oil: The domestic demand for palm oil is gradually weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The production in Malaysia has been affected by floods, but the subsequent increase in production and the decline in exports may limit the increase [22][23] - Corn: The new - season corn market is stable at the beginning. The futures expectation is slightly weak, but the risk of breaking the previous low is not high [23] - Hogs: The market supply of hogs is sufficient, and the price decline in some regions exceeds expectations. In the medium - term, the pig price may be under pressure from September to November, which may accelerate the market - based capacity reduction [23]