原油：或延续反弹，月差同步走强

Global Benchmark Crude Oil Prices - Brent (Dated) price is 84.57, serving as the European benchmark and a major indicator of international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and North Sea supply [2] - WTI (Cushing) price ranges from 64.07 - 64.09 with a mid - price of 64.08, up 0.3, reflecting inland supply - demand in the US, and its spread with Brent is affected by pipeline capacity and export demand [2] - Dubai price is 81.21, up 0.34, being the benchmark for Middle - East high - sulfur crude oil, with some trades potentially replaced by Murban crude oil [2] - Oman price is 81.55, up 0.45, a key Middle - East benchmark traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), reflecting the Middle - East physical crude oil market [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front) spread is 4.30/4.32, and a wider spread usually means enhanced US crude oil export profitability [2] - Brent EFP (Nov) is 0.01/0.03, an instrument for converting futures positions to physical delivery [2] - WTI EFP (Oct) is 0.01/0.01, a mechanism for converting WTI futures positions to physical delivery in Cushing [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct) spread change is 0.07, reflecting the relative value between Dubai and Oman crude oil [2] Asian Major Crude Oils - Umm Lulu price is 71.03, up 0.34, an Abu Dhabi medium - grade crude oil [4] - Das Blend price ranges from 70.46 - 70.50 with a mid - price of 70.480, up 0.34, and its pricing usually refers to the Dubai benchmark with a quality premium [4] - Qatar Land price ranges from 70.18 - 70.22 with a mid - price of 70.200, up 0.35, and its quality discount reflects API degree and sulfur content relative to the benchmark [4] - Qatar Marine price ranges from 70.13 - 70.17 with a mid - price of 70.150, up 0.45, an important oil variety exported from the Middle - East to Asia [4] - ESPO (FOB Kozmino) is a key variety in the Far - East market, usually having a premium over Dubai crude oil [4] - Minas (Indonesia) price is 67.72, with an official selling price (OSP) usually referring to Asian naphtha/gasoline cracking margins [4] - Cossack (Australia) price closely tracks Dated Brent, being a light, low - sulfur crude oil favored by Asian refineries [4] Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Singapore gasoline crack (vs Dubai) is 8.93, reflecting the theoretical profit of refining crude oil into gasoline in Asia, driven by seasonal demand [5] - Singapore naphtha crack (vs Dubai) is - 4.28, indicating a loss in naphtha production due to weaker demand as a chemical raw material compared to gasoline and diesel [5] - Singapore diesel crack (vs Dubai) is 18.91, showing strong diesel demand or tight supply in Asia [5] - Singapore jet fuel crack (vs Dubai) is 17.86, highly correlated with the diesel crack spread and affected by the aviation industry recovery and seasonal travel demand [5] Key Market News - The US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) on September 17, 2025, was announced at 4.25%, lower than the previous value of 4.50% [7] - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 2.19% decline, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [7] - In the week ending September 12, US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 296,000 barrels, and overall EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, more than the expected 857,000 - barrel decrease [7] - The US Secretary of State Rubio announced sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [7] Market Trends - The report indicates that crude oil may continue to rebound, and the monthly spread will strengthen simultaneously. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1][6] Futures Prices - WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.47 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, at $64.05 per barrel [1] - Brent November crude oil futures closed down $0.52 per barrel, a 0.76% decline, at $67.95 per barrel [1] - SC2511 crude oil futures closed down 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.52% decline, at 497.20 yuan per barrel [1]