五矿期货贵金属日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish stance on precious metals prices, with a focus on the price increase opportunities of silver under the background of the Fed's preventive interest rate cuts [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than market expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver prices [2] - Powell's characterization of this rate cut as "risk - management" alleviated market expectations of an overseas economic recession, which was a positive factor for silver with more obvious industrial attributes [2] - The voting pattern of this interest rate meeting implies a lower probability of current director Waller being elected as the new Fed Chairman, and the probability of Hassett taking office is increasing. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will rise with the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, a bullish view on precious metals prices should be maintained [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.76%, closing at 832.64 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 1.06%, closing at 9924.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.55%, closing at 3697.40 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell 0.28%, closing at 42.04 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 96.97 [2] - Various precious metal - related varieties showed different price changes and trading volume trends on September 17, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [4][6] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the less - dovish statement than expected by the market put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2] - Powell's view on inflation, labor market risks, and the nature of the rate cut affected market expectations. His characterization of the rate cut as "risk - management" was beneficial to silver [2] - The voting pattern in the meeting affected market expectations. The probability of the appointment of the new Fed Chairman will also affect future market expectations for rate cuts [3] Technical Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][11][12] - The near - far month structure charts of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and London silver are presented, reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [20][23][33] - Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationship with prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][43] - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA, along with their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [51][52][54]