棕榈油：上下均无明显驱动，区间操作为主，豆油：美豆震荡，油脂回调整理，豆粕：资金面影响，脱离基本面

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: With no obvious upward or downward drivers, it is advisable to conduct range trading [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: As US soybeans fluctuate, the oil is undergoing a corrective adjustment [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: Influenced by the capital side, it has deviated from the fundamentals [2][12]. - Soybean: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is oscillating at a low level [2][12]. - Corn: It is moving in an oscillatory manner [2][15]. - Sugar: It is trending downward in an oscillatory pattern [2][19]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the situation of new cotton listings [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is approaching its end, and the inventory remains high [2][31]. - Hogs: Although policy expectations have been realized, the weakness of the spot market persists [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,424 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.61% decline, and 9,388 yuan/ton at night with a -0.38% decline. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,366 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.62% decline, and 8,350 yuan/ton at night with a -0.19% decline [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month, with a 6.94% decrease in yield and a 0.21% decrease in oil extraction rate. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons (AmSpec) or 404,688 tons (SGS), showing a decrease compared to the same period last month [5][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,895 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.99% decline, and 3,895 yuan/ton at night with a -0.49% decline. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,002 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.44% decline, and 3,012 yuan/ton at night with a -0.23% decline [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On September 17, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to long - position liquidation, a decline in soybean oil, and an increase in the US dollar index. The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations of small refineries to large refineries [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The price of the C2511 contract was 2,161 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.37% decline, and 2,173 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase. The price of the C2601 contract was 2,155 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.14% decline, and 2,165 yuan/ton at night with a 0.46% increase [16]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern port collection price of corn was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, and the price at Guangdong Shekou was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [17]. - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 15.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [19]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of -1 [22]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,890 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.04% decline, and 13,870 yuan/ton at night with a -0.14% decline. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.20% decline, and 19,900 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decline [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton listings. The trading of the pure cotton yarn market was lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years [25]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The egg 2510 contract closed at 3,059 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.83% decline, and the egg 2601 contract closed at 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms with a -0.18% decline [31]. - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 12,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan. The Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The Guangdong spot price was 13,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [34]. - Market Logic: Group companies significantly reduced their sales volume, but the weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean hogs weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the market pressure will be prominent from September to October [36]. - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of -2 [35]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The PK510 contract closed at 7,818 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the PK511 contract closed at 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [38]. - Spot Market Focus: In some regions, the price of peanuts was stable. Some areas are expected to have new peanuts listed in about 10 days [39]. - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].