国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report presents the market trends of various black - series commodities on September 18, 2025, including expected price movements and fundamental data [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 (neutral). The futures price of 12601 contract is 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. Imported and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of certain ores. The basis and spreads also showed some fluctuations [2][4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). For the RB2601 rebar contract, the closing price is 3,168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%); for the HC2601 hot - rolled coil contract, the closing price is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%). Spot prices in various regions generally declined slightly. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends, and steel import and export data also changed [2][6][7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both are expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation due to the boost of macro - sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 (strong - biased). Futures prices of different contracts increased, while some spot prices decreased. Price differences such as the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [2][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of JM2601 coking coal and J2601 coke contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of coking coal increased in some regions, while coke prices decreased in some regions. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [2][14][15]. Logs - Expected to have repeated fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase, while most spot prices remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of different contracts also changed [2][17][18].