国新国证期货早报-20250918

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, the A-share market showed overall positive trends, with increases in major indices and trading volume. Futures markets for various commodities had different performances influenced by factors such as supply and demand, production changes, and macro - economic expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to shift from a supply shortage in 2024/25 to a slight surplus in 2025/26, with increased production and consumption [5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.46, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% to 3147.35. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2376.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 35.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02, up 27.69 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 17, the coke weighted index closed at 1746.9, up 7.0; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1239.8 yuan, up 1.8. A coal mine in Linfen Hongtong stopped production on September 16 for about 20 days, affecting about 140,000 tons of raw coal output. Three coking coal mines in Ordos have suspended shipments, one of which has stopped production for rectification. The spot price of coking coal has stopped falling and rebounded, and the possibility of a third price cut in the short term is low [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The October sugar delivery volume on the Intercontinental Exchange was 260,750 tons. Brazilian spot sugar prices declined in the first half of September. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of imported processed sugar quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on September 17. The global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of - 4.4 million tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of + 0.7 million tons in 2025/26, with production increasing from 189.4 million tons to 196.8 million tons and consumption increasing by 2.4 million tons [5]. Rubber - Nissan's plan to cut production and close design studios affected the market. The Shanghai Rubber futures fell on September 17. As of September 14, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The保税 area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [6][7]. Soybean Meal - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The US soybean crop rating decreased to 63%. Brazil's 2025 soybean production forecast remained at 170.3 million tons. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3002 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is rising [8]. Live Hogs - On September 17, the LH2511 contract closed at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. In September, the supply of suitable - weight pigs increased, and the consumption demand recovered slowly, resulting in a weak and volatile futures price [9]. Palm Oil - On September 17, the palm oil futures failed to continue rising and closed lower. From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05%, and exports decreased by 0.1% [9]. Shanghai Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but there is a risk of "buy on rumor, sell on news". Overseas copper mines have occasional disruptions, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee is low. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has widened, and the social inventory accumulation is limited [10]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 144 lots in inventory. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cottonseed was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [10]. Iron Ore - On September 17, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 804.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the iron water production returned to a high level. However, steel mills in Tangshan were required to reduce emissions, so the iron ore price was volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - On September 17, the asphalt 2511 contract closed up 0.58% at 3445 yuan. The asphalt supply remained low, the inventory decreased slightly, the shipment volume declined, and the demand was weak, so the price was volatile [11]. Logs - On September 17, the log futures opened at 806.5, closed at 809, and decreased by 1268 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship was stable, and the market was in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Steel - On September 17, the rb2601 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The steel industry faced high supply and low demand, resulting in high inventory, low prices, and reduced profits [12]. Alumina - On September 17, the ao2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton. The alumina price fell back after rising. The supply was loose, and downstream enterprises were mainly waiting and seeing [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 17, the al2511 contract closed at 20,940 yuan/ton. The market was waiting for the Fed's decision. The domestic "anti - involution" policy provided some support. The supply was normal, the social inventory increased, and the demand was cautious [13].