Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there were contradictions in its statements and forecasts, causing market volatility. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and gold is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, while short - term high - level fluctuations are possible. Silver follows gold, and it is recommended to take profits when the domestic price breaks through 10,000 yuan [3]. - The overall supply and demand of the commodity market are complex and diverse. Different varieties have different supply and demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these situations. For example, for some metals, the supply is tight or the demand is improving, while for some agricultural products and energy chemicals, the supply and demand are affected by factors such as seasons, policies, and international trade [2][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Summary by Directory Basic Metals - Copper: The price fluctuated weakly yesterday. To avoid the interest - rate meeting, the price declined. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and domestic maintenance has increased. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.31% yesterday. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption is warming up. Due to the approaching interest - rate meeting, the price may decline in the short - term, but it is expected to rise later. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The price of the main contract decreased by 1.41% yesterday. The operating capacity of alumina plants is at a high level, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [2][4]. - Lead: The price of the main contract increased by 0.26% yesterday. The supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is waiting to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract fluctuated on Wednesday. The supply has increased, and both social and warehouse inventories have slightly increased. The demand is at a relatively high level this year. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract decreased by 0.34% on Wednesday. The supply is stable, and inventories have started to accumulate. The demand for photovoltaic installations in the third quarter is pessimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 52,000 - 57,000, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - Tin: The price fluctuated weakly yesterday. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and Wa State is gradually resuming production. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - on - fluctuations strategy [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Precious metal prices declined before the interest - rate meeting due to profit - taking. The Fed cut interest rates, but there were contradictions in its statements. Gold is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with short - term high - level fluctuations. Silver follows gold, and it is recommended to take profits when the domestic price breaks through 10,000 yuan [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main contract rose by 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of building materials are moderately weak, while the demand for plates is stable. It is recommended to close long positions and aggressive investors can try to short the 2601 contract [6]. - Iron Ore: The main contract rose by 7.5 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are moderately strong, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: The main contract fell by 6.5 yuan/ton. The iron - water output increased, but the steel - mill profit margin narrowed. The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to close long positions in the 2605 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Overnight CBOT soybeans declined. The global supply is expected to be loose. Short - term price trends at home and abroad are different, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - Corn: The 2511 contract declined more significantly, and the spot price fell across the board. The supply has increased, and the price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner [7][8]. - Sugar: The 01 contract fell by 0.09%. Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is high, and domestically, the growth of sugarcane varies by region. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - Cotton: Overnight, the US cotton price declined. Internationally, the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, and the domestic cotton price fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Log: The 09 contract rose by 0.31%. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Palm Oil: Yesterday, the Malaysian palm oil price declined. The supply is in the seasonal growth period, and the demand is expected to increase in the near - term. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the monthly contracts [8]. - Eggs: The 2511 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price slightly declined. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [8]. - Hogs: The 2511 contract continued to decline, and the spot price fell. The supply is abundant in the near - term and is expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on reverse spread strategies [8][9]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is increasing but slowing down, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies or consider reverse spreads in the medium - to long - term [10]. - PVC: The v01 contract fell by 0.1%. The supply and demand are in a weak balance. It is recommended to short on rallies [10]. - PTA: The PX price is expected to be strong, and the PTA supply pressure is high in the long - term. It is recommended to short the processing fee of the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - Rubber: The price declined on Wednesday. The raw material price provides support, but the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate [10][11]. - Glass: The fg01 contract remained unchanged. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the situation is improving. It is recommended to go long [11]. - PP: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is picking up. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies or consider reverse spreads in the medium - to long - term [11]. - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to close short positions [11]. - Crude Oil: The price weakened slightly yesterday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, focusing on the SC12 contract around 500 yuan/barrel [11][12]. - Styrene: The EB main contract fell slightly. The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or short the profit [12]. - Soda Ash: The sa01 contract rose by 0.3%. The supply and demand are in a seasonal improvement under a weak balance. It is recommended to go long [12]. - Caustic Soda: The sh01 contract rose by 0.4%. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [12].
商品期货早班车-20250918
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-18 01:38