Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 - Publisher: Wukuang Futures Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The soybean import cost has been weak recently, and the domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter a destocking phase in September, which may support the oil mill's profit margin. The soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range, waiting for a driving force to choose a direction [2][4]. - The edible oil price, including palm oil, is expected to remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand growth. The domestic edible oil market is currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and expected tightness, and is expected to be bullish in the medium term [6]. - The domestic and foreign sugar markets are both bearish, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline. The downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [10][11]. - The cotton market is facing a combination of bullish and bearish factors. The downstream industry's operating rate is increasing, but the inventory is at a low level, and there is an expected increase in production in the long term. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13][14]. - The egg market has a large supply base and a large amount of cold storage eggs. The spot price is expected to fall after a short - term increase, but the supply pressure will decrease after the large - scale culling of laying hens. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [16][17]. - The pig market has a large theoretical and planned supply in September, but there are also potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound at a low level and short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19][20]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell from recent highs and maintained a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by 30 yuan/ton, and the domestic soybean meal transaction was fair, with high提货 levels. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost flat week - on - week and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [2]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The US soybean production area will have normal rainfall in the next two weeks. The USDA only lowered the yield per acre by 0.1 bushels, and the harvested area increased by 200,000 acres. The import soybean cost is supported by the undervalued US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and the Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces the pressure of global protein raw material oversupply and potential short - term oversupply [2]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost has been weak recently. Pay attention to its performance after stabilizing. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter a destocking phase in September, which may support the oil mill's profit margin. The soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range, waiting for a driving force to choose a direction [4]. Oils - Important Information: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. From September 1 - 15, the exports increased by 2.6% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The domestic three major oils fell on Wednesday, and foreign capital reduced their long positions in oils. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6]. - Trading Strategy: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decrease in export volume due to the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of oils. The oils market is currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and expected tightness, and is expected to be bullish in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after stabilization [8]. Sugar - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were flat compared to the previous trading day. A total of 260,000 tons of white sugar were delivered in the October contract, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 37,000 tons from India, 19,000 tons from Thailand, and 5,000 tons from China. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil is uncertain, and there may be a shift towards ethanol production in the future [10]. - Trading Strategy: Both the domestic and foreign sugar markets are bearish. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [11]. Cotton - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton increased by 10 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.5%, up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week and down 4.3 percentage points year - on - year; the weaving mill's operating rate was 38%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week and down 14.4 percentage points year - on - year. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.27 million tons, 460,000 tons less than the same period last year. As of September 14, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week but still much higher than the same period last year; the harvest rate was 9%, up 1 percentage point from the previous week and basically the same as the same period last year [13]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market is facing a combination of bullish and bearish factors. The downstream industry's operating rate is increasing, but the inventory is at a low level, and there is an expected increase in production in the long term. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, and the downstream's willingness to purchase high - priced eggs was cautious, with slightly slower sales. The national egg prices are expected to be mostly stable and partially lower today [16]. - Trading Strategy: The egg market has a large supply base and a large amount of cold storage eggs. The spot price is expected to fall after a short - term increase, but the supply pressure will decrease after the large - scale culling of laying hens. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [17]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price continued to fall yesterday. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.15 yuan to 13.04 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.64 yuan/kg. The farmers' enthusiasm for slaughtering was high, and the pig price was difficult to stabilize. The pig price is expected to continue to fall today [19]. - Trading Strategy: The pig market has a large theoretical and planned supply in September, but there are also potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound at a low level and short - selling opportunities after the rebound [20].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-18 01:38