国泰君安期货所长早读-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this morning, officially restarting the rate - cut cycle, with the weakening employment market as the main basis. The overall interest - rate decision and tone were in line with expectations. The median forecast of the interest rate at the end of 2025 dropped to 3.625%, implying two more rate cuts in October and December this year. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, suggesting one rate cut next year but with a small margin. The median expected interest rates for 2027 and 2028 are both 3.13%. The Fed maintained its balance - sheet reduction, and the market expects QT to pause at the end of the year [8]. - Powell is inclined to emphasize employment risks but is not completely relaxed about inflation. The market's expectation of rate cuts within this year is basically fixed after this FOMC meeting, and attention should be paid to long - term expectations, which are affected by fundamentals, Fed leadership changes, and the Fed's independence [9][10]. - For gold, although the current meeting is in line with expectations, the upside space may be limited after this year's rate cuts. For copper, the price adjustment space is small, and it will maintain a volatile trend. For生猪, after the policy expectations are fulfilled, the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [12][14][22]. Summaries by Directory Fed Rate - Cut Analysis - Rate - Cut Decision: The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, restarting the rate - cut cycle. The median interest - rate forecast at the end of 2025 is 3.625%, and there are expected to be two more rate cuts in October and December. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, with one rate cut expected [8]. - Economic Forecasts: The expected real GDP year - on - year growth rates for 2025 - 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, up from the previous period. The core PCE year - on - year expectations are 3.1%, 2.6%, and 2.1% respectively, also up but with a relatively mild long - term outlook. The unemployment rate expectations are 4.5%, 4.4%, and 4.3% respectively, showing a cautious view on employment this year [8]. - Powell's Speech: Powell is concerned about employment risks, as the unemployment rate has slightly increased, new job creation has decreased, and both supply and demand in the labor market are weak. Regarding inflation, the impact of US government policy changes on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [9]. Sector Analysis Gold - Market Reaction: After the FOMC meeting, the initial market reaction was positive, with gold rising and the dollar and interest rates falling. However, after Powell's press conference, the trend reversed. The price of gold reaching 3700 was already pricing in three rate cuts this year, and the dot - plot further confirmed this. The long - term rate - cut path for 2026 and 2027 did not change significantly, and there may be a significant rebound in long - term interest rates after this year's rate cuts. The upside space for gold is limited [12]. Copper - Macro and Fundamental Factors: The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut sent a mixed signal. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but price drops may promote restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the spot TC remains weak, leading to an expansion of smelting losses. The copper output in September is expected to decline. Overall, the macro and micro factors cannot form a resonance, and the copper price will maintain a volatile trend with limited downward adjustment space [14][30]. Zinc - Market Conditions: The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk showed small changes. The inventory and other indicators also had minor fluctuations. The trend intensity is neutral [33]. Lead - Price Support: The reduction in lead inventory supports the price to fluctuate. The closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The inventory of lead decreased, which is conducive to price stability [36]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Trends: Aluminum is expected to trade in a range, alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The relevant indicators such as prices, trading volumes, and inventories of these products have shown different degrees of change. The trend intensity of all three is neutral [44][45]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The contradictions in the nickel smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. The prices and relevant indicators of nickel and related products in the industrial chain have changed slightly. The trend intensity is neutral [46]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between short - term and long - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. The prices and trading volumes of stainless - steel futures have changed, and the trend intensity is neutral [46]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Situation: Driven by strong energy - storage demand, the carbonate - lithium market will operate in a volatile manner. The prices and trading volumes of carbonate - lithium futures contracts have changed, and the spot price has increased. The trend intensity is neutral [53][54]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to market - sentiment changes. The price of industrial - silicon futures has increased slightly, and the inventory has changed. The trend intensity is neutral [56][57]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has increased slightly. The prices and relevant indicators of polysilicon futures and related products in the industrial chain have changed. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [57][59]. Iron Ore - Market Volatility: The iron - ore market has repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices of different types of iron ore remained relatively stable. The trend intensity is neutral [60]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: It will trade in a wide range. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased slightly. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [62][63]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It will also trade in a wide range. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [63]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trends: Boosted by macro sentiment, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will show a relatively strong and volatile trend. The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the spot prices changed. The trend intensity of both is 1 (slightly bullish) [67][69]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Fluctuations: Both the coke and coking - coal markets have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased slightly, and the spot prices of coking coal increased while the coke price decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity of both is neutral [70][71][72]. Logs - Market Performance: The log market will fluctuate repeatedly, but no detailed data or analysis is provided in the report [73].