Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - Message: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - Trading Logic: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - Message: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - Market Outlook: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - Market: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - Outlook: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - Outlook: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - Outlook: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - Outlook: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - Market: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - Outlook: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - Outlook: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - Outlook: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - Outlook: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - Outlook: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - Outlook: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - Outlook: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - Soda Ash: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - Outlook: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - Polysilicon: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - Outlook: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - Outlook: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - Market: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - Market: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - Outlook: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - Market: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - Outlook: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - Outlook: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - Market: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - Outlook: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Market: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - Outlook: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - Market: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - Outlook: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - Market: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - Outlook: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - Market: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - Outlook: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].
五矿期货文字早评-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-18 01:33