国信证券晨会纪要-20250918

Macro and Strategy - The central bank's net injection maintains a balanced liquidity environment, with expectations of a seasonal rise in funding rates in September [3][7] - CPI internal structure shows significant divergence between food and non-food items, which has smoothed CPI volatility [8][9] Real Estate Industry - In the first eight months of 2025, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year, with new housing starts and sales also declining [10][11] - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with policies expected to intensify in September [10][11] Metal Industry - The non-ferrous sector saw a 38% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 18,197 billion, up 6.66% year-on-year [12][13] - Industrial metals experienced a 38% profit growth, driven by rising commodity prices and stable downstream demand [13] - Precious metals also showed strong performance, with a 65.6% increase in net profit, supported by rising gold prices amid recession fears [14] Machinery Industry - Hanbell Precision Machinery reported a 42.9% decline in net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue down 18.86% [25][26] - The company is focusing on the AIDC compressor and semiconductor vacuum pump sectors for new growth opportunities [25][26] Electronic Industry - The power semiconductor sector is recovering, with significant growth in the automotive and data center markets [23][24] - The penetration rate of SiC MOSFETs in new energy vehicles has reached 18%, indicating a growing trend towards advanced power devices [23] Low-altitude Economy - Zongshen Power's net profit increased by 73% in Q2 2025, with a focus on developing low-altitude economy products [31][32] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in aviation power and has made significant progress in product certification [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong positions in AI liquid cooling, robotics, and power semiconductor sectors [17][20][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy impacts on the real estate sector and the potential for recovery in the metal and machinery industries [10][12][25]