软商品日报：巴西中南部产量符合预期，白糖短期震荡-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]