镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250918

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - Inventory Management: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - Procurement Management: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]