Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various commodities and financial products. Some commodities are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, while others face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. The Fed's interest rate cut has a certain impact on the market, but its influence varies across different sectors [2][3][49]. Summaries by Commodity Types Energy - Crude Oil: The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations in supply, the rebound space is limited. A strategy of combining high - level short positions with call options is recommended [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The increase in domestic refinery operating rates benefits fuel oil feedstock demand, and the growth in Singapore's bunker fuel consumption is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuels. The low - sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased, and the supply pressure is not prominent. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread at low levels [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas market is strong, and the domestic market is also positive due to reduced imports in South China and good chemical margins. The short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [24]. - Natural Gas: Not mentioned in the provided content. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: After the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation as the Fed's attitude is cautious and the interest rate cut path is relatively mild [3]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Aluminum: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point. The Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high [5]. - Zinc: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel has declined. The pure nickel inventory has increased, and the nickel iron inventory has decreased. The Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10]. - Lead: The fundamentals of lead are strong domestically and weak overseas. The lead ingot import window may open, and the Shanghai lead has room for an upward rebound, with the upper limit temporarily seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Metals - Alumina: The operating capacity has reached a new high, and the supply is in excess. The price is under pressure, and the support level is temporarily seen around 2,830 yuan [7]. - Zinc: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the expected increase in enterprise costs from tax policy adjustments, it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum [6]. Building Materials - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price is oscillating. The rebar demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The hot - rolled coil demand is more resilient, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The overall steel price continues to rebound, but the rhythm may be volatile [15]. - Iron Ore: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. - Coke: The third round of price cuts is in progress. The price is affected by the expectation of coking coal production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [17]. - Coking Coal: The price is relatively strong due to the high expectation of production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - Manganese Silicon: The price is rising. The demand is supported by the recovery of hot - metal production, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [19]. - Silicon Iron: The price is rising. The demand is good, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [20]. Chemicals - Urea: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The industrial demand is recovering, and the agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation. The market is oscillating at a low level [25]. - Methanol: The import volume has decreased, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the short term. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the long - term impact of overseas gas restrictions needs attention [26]. - Pure Benzene: The price is oscillating. The supply may improve in the third quarter, but the high import volume suppresses market sentiment [27]. - Styrene: The supply has decreased, and the demand is supported by good downstream profits. The supply - demand situation has improved [28]. - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken slightly. The supply - demand situation of polyethylene is gradually improving, while that of polypropylene improves limitedly [29]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is oscillating strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand needs to be observed. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - PX & PTA: The PTA price has rebounded, and the PX price has moved up. The demand for PTA is improving, but the price is still driven by raw materials [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is oscillating at a low level due to the pressure of new - device expectations [32]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber price has rebounded, and it is advisable to allocate long positions in the near - term contracts. The bottle - chip market has a slight improvement, but the long - term over - capacity problem persists [33]. Soft Commodities - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [37]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices are falling. The long - term trend is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be high, and the export is expected to be low. The domestic rapeseed - related prices are supported by supply bottlenecks but are also under pressure from soybean import expectations [39]. - Soybean No. 1: The price has reached a new low. The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance and the performance of new - crop soybeans [40]. - Corn: The price is slightly rising. The spot prices vary in different regions. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the new - crop purchase enthusiasm fades [41]. - Live Hogs: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - Eggs: The futures price is slightly weak, and the spot price is strong. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half [43]. - Cotton: The US cotton price has declined. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be high, and the demand is still weak. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term [44]. - Sugar: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45]. - Apples: The futures price is oscillating. The supply of apples is expected to be stable, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected [46]. - Timber: The price is oscillating. The supply is low, and the demand is going well during the off - season. The market lacks upward momentum in the short term [47]. - Paper Pulp: The price is slightly falling. The inventory is still at a high level, and the supply is relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [48]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock market is rising. The market style is expected to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index can be grasped [49]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures price is rising. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].
综合晨报-20250918
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:12