Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%[11] - The Fed's focus has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "supporting employment" due to concerns over a slowing labor market[2] Economic Outlook - Non-farm payrolls have significantly declined, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to over 120,000 earlier in the year[12] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.3%[12] Future Rate Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year[28] - The median projection in the dot plot indicates a potential return to a natural rate of around 3.0% by 2027[15] Inflation Concerns - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.1% by year-end, with expectations of a decline to 2.6% by the end of next year[14] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of inflation rising again, particularly if tariff-induced cost increases persist[29] Market Impacts - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more than long-term yields due to the rate cuts[33] - The U.S. dollar is likely to face continued pressure, having already depreciated nearly 10% since the beginning of the year[33] Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts may provide more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to lower domestic interest rates[35] - Increased global liquidity could benefit China's stock market and stabilize the RMB exchange rate[35]
粤开宏观:美联储重启降息周期:回顾、展望及影响
Yuekai Securities·2025-09-18 02:06