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宝城期货国债期货早报-20250918
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:04

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall view of the report is that the treasury bond futures will show an oscillating trend. In the short - term, they will be mainly in an oscillating consolidation state, with an oscillating - up trend during the day, and the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating. The futures are influenced by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating - up, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The daily view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillating - up, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that the treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. They are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences. Based on August macro - economic data, credit data is weak, consumption growth has marginally weakened, and inflation data is weak, leading to an increasing expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the domestic market in the fourth quarter as the overseas Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation is gradually realized. Additionally, the stock market risk preference is high, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures have both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state in the short term [5].