宝城期货资讯早班车-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, and the market expects further rate cuts. The Fed noted rising employment risks, slower economic growth, and increased inflation [3][14]. - China will expand service consumption through measures such as selecting pilot cities, introducing policies, promoting AI application, and increasing financial support. During the consumption month, over 25,000 cultural and tourism activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [2][15]. - The resource cycle sector is expected to benefit from the Fed's rate - cut cycle and the approaching PPI inflection point in China. Some resource - themed funds have seen significant growth [5]. - The real estate market shows signs of stabilizing, including the completion of the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" task, narrowing price declines, debt - restructuring efforts by troubled developers, and a decrease in the unsold area of new commercial housing [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data速览 - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, also slightly up [1]. - Social financing scale in August 2025 was not provided, but the previous month was 256.68 billion yuan, and the same period last year was 303.23 billion yuan [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in August 2025 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing a significant increase from the previous year [1]. - CPI in August 2025 was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in August 2025 had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.5%, down from previous levels [1]. - Social consumer goods retail sales in August 2025 had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4.64% [1]. - Exports and imports in August 2025 had year - on - year growth of 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, both showing a slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption models, introduce policies, and promote AI in service consumption. Over 25,000 cultural and tourism activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [2][15]. - Hong Kong will take five measures to establish an international gold trading market, including expanding gold storage and building a central clearing system [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects more rate cuts [3][14]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally fell, but the expected easing of monetary policy may support the market. Base metals were also affected by the weakening dollar [5]. - The resource cycle sector has shown good performance, and some resource - themed funds have reached new net - value highs. The Fed's rate - cut cycle and the approaching PPI inflection point are favorable factors [5]. - The price of cobalt has risen by 61.25% since the beginning of 2025, reaching 272,500 yuan/ton as of September 16 [5]. - The position and capital flow in the lithium carbonate futures market have changed, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [6]. - Lead, copper, and other metal inventories have changed, with lead and copper inventories hitting new lows [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The direct impact of US tariffs on the Indian steel industry is small, but the European carbon tax will affect exports. The continued use of the blast - furnace route for new capacity is a concern [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices fell slightly, with multiple factors affecting the market [9]. - China aims to increase new energy storage capacity to over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, over 240 million kilowatts by 2030, and over 300 million kilowatts by 2035 [9]. - Two wells in the Ziyang shale gas field in Sichuan set a new shale gas production record [9]. - Diesel fuel inventories in the Gulf Coast of the US reached the highest level since January 2024 [9]. - US crude exports increased, domestic production decreased, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [10]. - Ukraine's natural gas reserves can meet 80% - 90% of its winter demand [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation focused on controlling the capacity of breeding sows to regulate next year's supply [11]. - Canada is expected to produce 36.6 million tons of wheat in 2025, a 1.9% increase from 2024 [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 17 at an interest rate of 1.40% [13]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a 150 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit auction on September 17, with an interest rate of 1.78% [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects more rate cuts [3][14]. - China will expand service consumption through various measures [2][15]. - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, a 0.3% increase year - on - year, and tax revenue growth turned positive for the first time [16]. - The central bank supports financial institutions in issuing bonds and asset - backed securities to increase consumer credit supply [16]. - Financial institutions have applied for nearly 60 billion yuan in service consumption and elderly - care re - loans, involving nearly 4,000 business entities and over 570 billion yuan in loans [16]. - Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, central enterprises' assets have increased from less than 70 trillion yuan to over 90 trillion yuan, and their profits have increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan [17]. - Hong Kong will discuss with mainland institutions to launch offshore treasury bond futures, expand interest - rate derivatives, and promote cross - border RMB repurchase business [17]. - The floating - rate bond market has expanded rapidly this year, with commercial banks restarting issuance [17]. - The real estate market shows signs of stabilizing [20]. - Some companies have had major bond - related events, and some overseas credit ratings have changed [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and treasury bond futures rose [21]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [22]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant price changes [22]. - Money market interest rates generally increased [23]. - The winning yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced [24]. - Repurchase fixed - rate bonds in the inter - bank and silver - silver markets rose [24][25]. - European bond yields fell, and US bond yields rose [25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [26]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Some public bond funds may change their redemption fee policies, and bond ETFs may attract more investors [27]. - The central bank's segmented operations help maintain liquidity, but the money market may still face fluctuations [27][28]. - The convertible bond market showed signs of recovery, with a stable primary - market supply and opportunities for event - driven investments [28]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On September 18, 222 bonds will be listed, 177 bonds will be issued, 150 bonds will be paid, and 236 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rose, with the auto - parts sector having a strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.78%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 4.22%. South - bound funds had net purchases of 9.44 billion Hong Kong dollars [30][31].