Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is affected by the capital side and deviates from the fundamentals, while the price of soybean No. 1 fluctuates at a low level under the influence of the soybean market atmosphere [1]. - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, retreating from a two - week high due to long - profit taking, a decline in the neighboring soybean oil futures, and an increase in the US dollar index [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Prices: DCE soybean No. 1 2511 closed at 3895 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan or - 0.99% during the day session and down 19 yuan or - 0.49% during the night session); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3002 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan or - 1.44% during the day session and down 7 yuan or - 0.23% during the night session). CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1044 cents/bushel (down 5.0 cents or - 0.48%), and CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.5 dollars/short ton (down 0.6 dollars or - 0.21%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal was 20 - 10 yuan lower than the previous day, ranging from 3010 - 3030 yuan/ton. In different regions like Shandong, Zhangjiagang, and South China, there were various price spreads relative to futures contracts for different months [1]. - Industrial Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.6 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 13.38 million tons two days ago. The inventory was 110.85 million tons per week on the previous trading week, compared with 106.39 million tons two weeks ago [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were long - profit taking, a decline in the neighboring soybean oil futures, and an increase in the US dollar index. The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. Analysts believe that this may face lawsuits from oil giants and could be delayed for months. The American Soybean Association supports the 100% redistribution of SRE to maintain the integrity of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) [1][3]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the report day. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].
豆粕:资金面影响,脱离基本面,豆一:豆类市场氛围影响,低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:15