放缓、失业率小幅上升及就业下行风险增加的判断

Group 1: Fed Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, the first rate cut in nine months this year [2][3] - The Fed removed the statement of "robust labor market conditions" and added concerns about employment growth slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and increased downside risks to employment [2][3] - This rate cut is a "risk management" cut to address the risk of labor market deterioration rather than inflation pressure [3] - The FOMC dot plot shows that two more rate cuts are expected this year, but there is significant internal disagreement, with less than half of the officials supporting three rate cuts in total [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - After the resolution, the US 10-year Treasury yield initially dropped and then rose, indicating that the market digested short-term easing but long-term interest rate pressure remained [4] - The gold market first rose and then fell, showing that market risk aversion briefly released and then returned to calm [4] - The rate cut eased market liquidity pressure, but due to coexisting employment and inflation risks, asset prices showed differentiation, with the bond market rising in a volatile manner and gold falling under pressure [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The median forecast for real GDP in 2025 is 1.6%, up from the June forecast of 1.4% [25] - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in 2025 remains at 4.5%, with a slight change in the range compared to the June forecast [25] - The median forecast for PCE in 2025 is 3%, with no change from the June forecast, and the forecast for future years shows a gradual decline towards the 2% target [25] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2025 is 3.6%, down from the June forecast of 3.9% [25]