降息25bp，Fed意外团结

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% on September 18, 2025[1] - The dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts expected by the end of the year, aligning with market expectations[1] - The Fed's updated language reflects a shift in focus from inflation to employment, noting increased risks to job growth[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points from June[3] - Inflation projections for 2026 were increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, while 2025 remains at 3.1% and 2027 at 2.1%[3] - The Fed anticipates that the neutral interest rate will not be reached until 2027 or 2028, indicating a "dovish near-term, hawkish long-term" stance[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, there was an initial "sell the news" reaction, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5% before recovering[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% but later rebounded to around 4.08%[4] - Gold prices initially rose but then fell to around $3,645 per ounce, indicating mixed market sentiment[4] Group 4: Future Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be further compromised, with potential political pressures influencing future appointments[5][6] - The possibility of appointing more dovish members to the Fed could lead to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility[6] - The overall outlook suggests a favorable environment for equities and gold, while being negative for the dollar and bonds[6]