华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou regions' short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total construction steel output by 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started shutting down on January 5, and most of the other steel mills will shut down around mid - January, with some expecting to shut down after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and with a pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was in high - level consolidation. After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar first declined and then rose. Powell's remarks provided support for the US dollar index [2] - The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, with high domestic operating capacity, an open import window, and high domestic inventory on the supply side. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants' raw material inventory is high, and spot purchasing is negative [3] - The demand side of aluminum has shown signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% week - on - week, and the "Golden September" effect is strengthening [3] - As of September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the出库 performance has improved in September, the premium and discount are still under pressure, and whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in late September needs further observation [3] Overall for Metals - The macro interest rate cut expectation has been fulfilled as scheduled. As it is transitioning to the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is support from both the macro and fundamentals. However, after the macro "boot" has landed, it is expected that the price will have room for a short - term high - level correction, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]