首席点评：美联储如期降息

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - International News: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - Domestic News: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - Rubber: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - Copper: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - Black Metals: - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - Iron Ore: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - Steel: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - Agricultural Products: - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - Oils and Fats: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - Sugar: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - Cotton: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].