南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side peak - season support. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine under CATL is a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to market anticipation of future price declines, while the demand side provides strong support [3]. - The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine is uncertain. Before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable. After that, price fluctuations will depend on "demand fulfillment strength". It is expected that until National Day, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate between 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include potential mine - end production halts in Jiangxi and new policies supporting downstream demand. Bearish factors include the risk of insufficient restocking demand during the peak season and the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Futures Data - Price Prediction: The strong pressure level for the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 65.9% [2]. - Contract Data: For the main contract, the closing price is 73,640 yuan/ton (up 0.63% daily, 4.13% weekly), trading volume is 343,863 lots (down 31.26% daily, 54.24% weekly), and open interest is 294,624 lots (down 1.93% daily, 13.55% weekly). Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and other contract spreads [9][10]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 39,234 lots, up 0.0106 daily and 0.0297 weekly [10]. Spot Data - Lithium Ore: Different types of lithium ore have varying price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton (stable daily, 0% weekly), and lithium辉石 (Li2O: 6% from Australia CIF) is 825 US dollars/ton (up 0.61% daily, 2.48% weekly) [20]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have different price movements. For instance, the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,900 yuan/ton (up 0.42% daily, down 0.42% weekly) [24]. - Price Spreads: The electric - carbon to industrial - carbon price spread is 2,250 yuan/ton (stable), the electric - hydrogen to electric - carbon spread is 5,820 yuan/ton (down 5.67% daily, 6.43% weekly), and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea to domestic spread is - 7,602.85 yuan/ton (up 4.90% daily, 11.72% weekly) [27]. - Downstream Products: Various downstream lithium - related products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have their own price changes. For example, the average price of phosphoric iron lithium (power - type) is 33,540 yuan/ton (up 0.21% daily) [29]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are provided, with values ranging from - 1,100 to 300 yuan/ton for different specifications and contracts [31][32]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 39,234 lots, an increase of 410 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses show different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35]. Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate is presented, including from purchasing lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) and lithium辉石 concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) [39]. - Import Profit: The lithium carbonate import profit is also shown, although specific details are not fully elaborated in the given text [40].