中辉能化观点-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][4] - Bearish Rebound: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - Cautiously Bullish: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, natural gas [1][3][4] - Bullish: Methanol [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are released, and the Fed's interest - rate cut is confirmed. Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. There are different supply - demand situations and price trends for various energy and chemical products [1]. - For most products, the macro - environment, including OPEC+ production policies, Fed interest - rate decisions, and geopolitical conflicts, has a significant impact on prices. At the same time, the supply - demand relationship of each product itself also determines its price trend [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.86%, Brent fell 1.48%, and SC rose 1.28%. The latest WTI主力 was at $63.32/barrel, Brent主力 at $67.46/barrel, and SC主力 at 499.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - Basic Logic: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and unexpected inventory drawdown in the US provide short - term support for oil prices, but there is a long - term supply surplus, with prices likely to fall to around $60 [6]. - Fundamentals: As of the week ending September 12, US crude net imports decreased by 3.1 million barrels/day to 415,000 barrels/day, and exports increased by 2.5 million barrels/day to 5.3 million barrels/day. EIA data showed a 9.3 - million - barrel decrease in US commercial crude inventories to 415.36 million barrels [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [495 - 505] for SC [8]. LPG - Market Performance: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,540 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,499 (- 5) yuan/ton, and 4,550 (+10) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus and may decline further. The demand side has weakened due to falling chemical profits. As of September 17, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,002 lots [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (- 40). The North China Ningmei price was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 30), and the number of warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots (+523) [16]. - Basic Logic: Market sentiment has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and demand. Production is expected to increase next week, and the demand side is supported by the approaching peak season for shed films [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7350] for L [17]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 closed at 6,939 yuan/ton. The East China wire - drawing market price was 6,847 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 92 yuan/ton [21]. - Basic Logic: Cost support has improved. The recent increase in the PP parking ratio and the decline in the wire - drawing production ratio are expected to ease supply pressure. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7050] for PP [22]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 closed at 4,847 yuan/ton. The Changzhou spot price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the 01 basis was - 197 yuan/ton [26]. - Basic Logic: Market sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level. Fundamentally, supply is strong and demand is weak, with large - sample social inventories accumulating for 12 consecutive weeks. There are more maintenance plans this week, and exports may weaken [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips supported by low valuations. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - Market Performance: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 (+7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,712 (- 66) yuan/ton. The PX11 - 12 month - spread was 24 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 85.7 (- 1.2) yuan/ton [30]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand has improved, with PTA device operating loads rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and inventories are still relatively high. Macro factors include OPEC+ production increases and a high probability of Fed interest - rate cuts [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Build long positions on dips in intraday trading and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of [6750 - 6860] for PX511 [32]. PTA - Market Performance: On September 12, the PTA East China price was 4,565 (- 55) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4,648 (- 40) yuan/ton. The TA11 - 1 month - spread was - 18 (- 4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 83 (- 15) yuan/ton [34]. - Basic Logic: PTA processing fees are low. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of previously maintained devices and new device投产 expectations. There is an expectation of a "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and build long positions on dips in intraday trading [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 (- 44) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4,319 (- 31) yuan/ton. The EG10 - 1 month - spread was 34 (+21) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 106 (- 14) yuan/ton [38]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have not changed much. Arrivals and imports are relatively low. There is an expectation of a consumption peak season, and demand is improving. Inventories are low, providing support for prices. The market is trading on new device投产 expectations [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually close short positions and hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude. Focus on the range of [4270 - 4310] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - Market Performance: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2,379 (- 8) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 99 (+3) yuan/ton [42]. - Basic Logic: Methanol device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined slightly. Overseas device loads are still high, and imports are high, resulting in relatively large supply - side pressure. Demand has stopped falling, and cost support has stabilized [43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2350 - 2380] for MA01 [45]. Urea - Core View: Cautiously bullish. Short - term supply is tight, but it is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits under certain policies [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: The urea futures price is under pressure in the short - term. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously bullish. Geopolitical factors drive up energy prices, and the temperature is getting cooler, increasing combustion demand and gas storage for winter [4]. Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously bearish. Although the cost - end crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the supply is in surplus, and the overall supply - demand is loose, with high valuations [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - Core View: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased. New production lines have been ignited, increasing daily melting volume, but terminal demand is still weak [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term bullish due to improved market sentiment [4]. Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply pressure is expected to ease due to upcoming device maintenance [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term bullish with a slight improvement in demand, but bearish in the medium - to - long - term [4].