股指日报：美联储降息落地，短期情绪或有降温-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation; Mid - short - term: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market fluctuations are mainly due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Summary by Related Contents Macro Stock Market Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the restart after 9 months. China's State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption, including selecting about 50 pilot cities, issuing policy documents, promoting AI application, and enhancing capital supply in the consumption field [5] Stock Index盘面 Review - In the previous trading day, A - shares oscillated upwards. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%. The diversified finance and motorcycle sectors led the rise, while precious metals and agriculture sectors lagged. Over 2,500 stocks rose, and 80 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect. The daily - line shows high - level divergence and weakening upward momentum, while the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend. The trading volume of A - shares remained flat at around 2.4 trillion, with a cooling trading enthusiasm but still at a historical high, indicating high capital entry willingness [5] Core Logic Summary - The recent market is not affected by additional events. The market fluctuates due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term traders can conduct high - selling and low - buying according to the above - mentioned range, and trend long positions should wait for further adjustment. The long IF and short IM portfolio can be appropriately liquidated for profit. In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rose yesterday, with the average IV of the CSI 300 current - month options at around 23%. It's okay to hold the current - month double - selling options until expiration, but attention should be paid to margin fluctuations [4]