成材：关注周度基本面变化，钢价底部运行-20250918

Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating implies that the steel price is in a low - level operation state [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price is at the bottom and will operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Information 1. Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points at the Wednesday's meeting, the first rate cut this year and restarting after 9 months. The latest dot - plot predicts two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, one more than the June forecast [1] 2. Steel Production Data - In August, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.1196 million tons, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, key steel enterprises produced 555 million tons of crude steel, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's rebar output was 1.5412 million tons, a 23.6% year - on - year increase; from January to August, the cumulative output was 12.8678 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year increase [1] 3. Steel Market Performance - Yesterday, rebar first declined and then rose, closing with a doji; hot - rolled coil closed slightly lower. Last week, many steel mills resumed production, and the daily average hot - metal output rebounded rapidly, but downstream demand was relatively average with little change, putting pressure on the market. Recently, the rebound of raw materials has supported steel prices from the cost side [1]