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【早间看点】Anec巴西9月大豆出口预估升至753万吨Abiove巴西工厂7月加工大豆471万吨-20250918
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:51
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It shows that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm due to supply - demand imbalances. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may impact crop maturity and harvest, and there are various changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Brent 11, WTI 10, and CBOT soybeans are presented. Also, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [1][2]. - Exchange Rates: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, including the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Brazilian real [1]. 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - US Soybean - Producing Areas Weather: From September 21 - 25, the temperature in US soybean - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is uneven. The Midwest has showers, which are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][6]. 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - Edible Oil Prices: Kenanga Research expects edible oil prices, including palm oil, to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [8]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in September will rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports will be 219 tons [8]. - Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing: Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production estimate at 1703 million tons, and adjusts the 2025 soybean processing volume to 5850 million tons [8]. - Soybean and Oilseed Trade: There are changes in soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil trade volumes in India, the EU, and other regions. Also, Ukraine's rapeseed exports are affected by tariffs [9][10][11]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - Oil Product Transactions: On September 16, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The soybean meal transaction volume also decreased [14]. - Inventory and开机率: As of September 16, the national soybean oil port inventory increased slightly, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.3 Macro - News 3.3.1 International News - US Economic Data: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. There are various economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and housing market indices in the US. Also, OPEC + will hold a meeting to discuss production capacity estimates [16][17]. - European Economic Data: The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and industrial output data are presented [17][18]. 3.3.2 Domestic News - Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy: On September 16, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [20]. 3.4 Fund Flows On September 16, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 22.877 billion yuan, including 4.42 billion yuan in commodity futures, 17.337 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 1.045 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [24]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.